Possible scenario
Limited Disclosure
42% Chance
Moscow provides enough information to the World Health Organization to reduce the immediate dispute without fully admitting a lab accident. This is the most likely path because Russia can preserve deniability while avoiding a broader public-health confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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