Possible scenario
Formal WHO Process
28% Chance
The dispute moves into a formal WHO and International Health Regulations process rather than a fast bilateral resolution. This keeps the issue in headlines but avoids immediate escalation into sanctions or a confirmed wider outbreak.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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