Possible scenario
Contained Lab Accident
18% Chance
A lab accident becomes effectively confirmed through Russian admission, leaked documents, or WHO findings, but the incident remains geographically limited. Markets price a modest health-security shock rather than a global outbreak.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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