Possible scenario
Counting Error Emerges
6%
0.0%
A county-level reporting or ballot-upload issue materially revises the apparent 5,000-vote margin. The correction does not necessarily imply fraud, but it creates a short burst of political scrutiny around election administration in the district.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.