• 

  54%0.0%

  Knickerbocker Holds Lead

  Kristina Knickerbocker’s 5,000-vote edge proves large enough to withstand late-counted absentee, provisional, and military ballots. Mike Turner concedes after the county canvass confirms that the remaining vote pool cannot erase the Democratic lead.

• 

  24%0.0%

  Turner Late Comeback

  Turner benefits from a favorable mix of late-arriving absentee, provisional, overseas, and rural Election Day ballots. The GOP argues the rural surge visible before Election Day continued into the final count and offset Knickerbocker’s early-vote advantage.

• 

  16%0.0%

  Recount Fight Extends

  The margin tightens enough to trigger a recount, but neither campaign is willing to concede quickly. The contest shifts from turnout operations to ballot curing, provisional-ballot eligibility, and county-level recount procedures.

• 

  6%0.0%

  Counting Error Emerges

  A county-level reporting or ballot-upload issue materially revises the apparent 5,000-vote margin. The correction does not necessarily imply fraud, but it creates a short burst of political scrutiny around election administration in the district.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.