Talarico Flips Texas

38%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

James Talarico narrowly defeats Ken Paxton, confirming the late polling and betting-market shift that made Texas the dominant Senate market on Kalshi. The result is treated as a major Democratic breakthrough, with market impact depending on whether it also delivers Senate control.

What it moves

Energy−0.6%
Finance−0.4%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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