Possible scenario
Le Pen Presidency
32% Chance
Le Pen's 38% polling level proves durable and translates into a first-round lead large enough to survive the runoff. The market impact depends heavily on whether the National Rally also secures governing power in the National Assembly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.2%
- Industrials -0.7%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.