Possible scenario
Runoff Barrier Holds
38% Chance
Marine Le Pen remains the dominant first-round candidate, but France's anti-RN runoff dynamics still hold. A centrist or moderate-right candidate consolidates enough left, center and conservative voters in the second round to keep the presidency out of National Rally hands.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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