Possible scenario
Frontrunner Status Erodes
20% Chance
The 38% reading marks a high-water point rather than a new floor. Scrutiny of RN's economic program, candidate consolidation elsewhere and tactical voting expectations reduce Le Pen's path to the presidency.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.