Possible scenario
Mediated De-escalation
25% Chance
Oman, the United Nations, and regional intermediaries press both sides to pause cross-border strikes before the exchange damages oil infrastructure or civilian aviation further. Saudi Arabia may accept a short pause if Houthi launches slow and border-security assurances are discussed.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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