Possible scenario
Energy Infrastructure Escalation
20% Chance
A more dangerous escalation occurs if Houthis shift from airports to Saudi energy infrastructure or Red Sea shipping corridors. This is less likely than continued contained retaliation, but the repeated attacks on Riyadh and coalition strikes raise the risk of a symbolic strike on oil or logistics assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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