Contained Retaliation Cycle

The most likely path is a continued exchange of Houthi drone or missile launches and Saudi-led coalition strikes without a decisive change in the conflict. Riyadh has incentives to respond forcefully after airport casualties, while both sides may avoid attacks that would trigger a broader regional confrontation.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.