Possible scenario
Restraint Takes Hold
22% Chance
Western air-defense support and private diplomatic pressure reduce the chance of a major new Russian strike wave. Ukraine still threatens refinery retaliation, but both sides avoid actions that would produce a near-term oil or NATO escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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