Possible scenario
Energy War Widens
30% Chance
The exchange shifts further toward energy infrastructure, with Ukraine continuing attacks on Russian refineries and export logistics while Russia targets Ukraine's grid. This is the clearest path to a near-term market reaction because oil supply risk becomes more salient.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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