Possible scenario
Contained Retaliation
45% Chance
Russia answers Zelenskyy's refinery threat with additional strikes on Kyiv, but keeps the operation within the recent pattern of drone and missile attacks. Ukraine continues targeting Russian energy assets selectively, while both sides avoid steps that would clearly broaden the war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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