Possible scenario
Bank Contagion Widens
−1.2%
The Ueno seizure triggers wider concern about midsize Paraguayan banks, forcing the central bank’s interim leadership to provide emergency liquidity. This is the highest-stress path because the political crisis and banking crisis reinforce each other.
What it moves
- Finance−2.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals−0.5%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
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