• 

  40%

  0.0%

  Government Stabilizes Crisis

  President Santiago Peña survives the initial impeachment push because the Colorado Party and allied legislators block the opposition from reaching removal thresholds. The government pairs riot-control measures with a deposit guarantee or bridge-bank plan to contain anger over the nearly $3 billion frozen at Ueno Bank.

  Finance +0.2%

• 

  25%

  −0.3%

  Impeachment Advances Slowly

  Opposition parties succeed in turning the Ueno Bank collapse into a formal congressional process, but removal remains uncertain. Peña offers resignations from regulators or finance officials to split moderates from hard-line impeachment supporters.

  Finance −0.4%

• 

  20%

  −0.6%

  Peña Leaves Office

  The impeachment threat becomes politically unmanageable and Peña either resigns or is removed after defections inside the Colorado bloc. Vice President Pedro Alliana becomes the constitutional successor, but the market reaction depends on whether the transition is orderly.

  Finance −1.2% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.3%

• 

  15%

  −1.2%

  Bank Contagion Widens

  The Ueno seizure triggers wider concern about midsize Paraguayan banks, forcing the central bank’s interim leadership to provide emergency liquidity. This is the highest-stress path because the political crisis and banking crisis reinforce each other.

  Finance −2.3% · Consumer Cyclicals −0.5% · Consumer Non-Cyclicals −0.3%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.