Possible scenario
Talarico Upset Win
34% Chance
James Talarico converts his fundraising edge and Paxton's vulnerabilities into a rare Democratic statewide victory in Texas. The path runs through heavy turnout in Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and improved Democratic margins among college-educated suburban voters.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Finance -0.5%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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