Possible scenario
Paxton Narrow Win
43% Chance
Texas's underlying Republican lean and Trump-endorsed GOP consolidation carry Ken Paxton over James Talarico despite a tied October poll. Talarico keeps the race close through fundraising, suburban gains, and Paxton's legal baggage, but falls short statewide.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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