Possible scenario
Recount Legal Fight
13% Chance
The race lands inside recount or litigation territory, especially if mail, provisional, or military ballots decide the margin. Paxton's history as Texas attorney general and the national stakes make legal challenges highly plausible if the count is razor-thin.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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