This climb represents the highest win projection for Collins since Democratic candidate Graham Platner dropped out of the race. The five term senator's probability of winning the seat was 26% early last week before rising to 36% on Sept. 25.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Susan Collins Maine Senate Win Odds Hit 40% Highest Since Platner Exit
US Politics23 days ago
The win probability for the Republican incumbent in Maine grew by 14 percentage points over the last four days on the Kalshi prediction market. Senator Susan Collins now has a 40% chance of winning her seat, while the probability for Democratic opponent Troy Jackson fell by the same margin to 60%.
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