Wider Energy Retaliation

10%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The refinery pause does not translate into broader restraint, and Moscow escalates attacks on Ukrainian energy assets or Black Sea logistics. This keeps energy markets sensitive to renewed disruption even if Russian refinery runs have temporarily recovered.

What it moves

Energy+0.9%
Industrials+0.3%
Market volatility▲ up
Oil prices▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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