Strikes Resume Again

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Kyiv resumes refinery strikes if Russia expands attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure or rejects ceasefire terms. This would reverse part of the processing rebound and reintroduce a modest geopolitical premium into crude and refined products.

What it moves

Energy+0.9%
Oil prices▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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