Pause Mostly Holds

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Ukraine keeps the refinery-strike pause largely intact, either because of U.S. pressure or because Kyiv prioritizes other military targets. Russian crude processing continues to rebound, easing near-term product-supply stress and trimming the geopolitical risk premium in oil.

What it moves

Energy−0.1%
Oil prices▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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