Prolonged Hormuz Closure

its chance, of the story’s futures

−2.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for several more weeks, keeping Qatari LNG unavailable and forcing Europe to plan for end-winter storage near emergency levels. Germany, Italy, Austria, and the Netherlands prioritize households and critical infrastructure while curtailing energy-intensive industry.

What it moves

Non-Energy Materials−4.8%
Energy+4.4%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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