Managed Partial Reopening

its chance, of the story’s futures

+1.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Diplomatic and naval pressure produces a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing some LNG and crude flows to resume under escort. Europe still faces tight winter balances, but the probability of storage falling to 10% declines materially.

What it moves

Non-Energy Materials+3.1%
Energy−2.9%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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