The reading marks the first year-over-year uptick since May and the third highest level since September 2023, with fuel oil spiking 74% over the past year due to the conflict in Iran. Following the data release, Kalshi shifted the probability of an October Fed rate hike to 33% from 21%, and short-term interest-rate futures fell as traders bet on three additional hikes through 2027. The news caused a sharp decline in gold and silver and a drop in real earnings of 0.5%.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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US September Inflation Hits 3.7% Boosting Fed Rate Hike Bets
US Markets7 days ago
Core consumer prices rose 2.6% on an annual basis in the latest report, exceeding the 2.5% projection of analysts. Headline inflation climbed to 3.7% year-over-year, beating a 3.6% median estimate from major institutions including JPMorgan and Citi. Monthly CPI increased 0.6%, while monthly core CPI grew 0.3%, topping the 0.2% forecast. A 9.1% jump in gasoline prices accounted for over half of the monthly all-items increase, while the three-month annualized core inflation rate surged to 3.41% from 1.97% in August.
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