Possible scenario

Adoption Frictions Persist

15%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Even with full production underway, deployment may be limited by data-center power availability, export restrictions, or customer efforts to diversify away from Nvidia. These frictions do not derail Vera Rubin, but they cap the immediate read-through from the manufacturing milestone.

What it moves

Technology−0.5%
Utilities+0.2%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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