Possible scenario
Judicial De-Escalation
20% Chance
Pakistan's courts intervene to limit the political damage from detaining Imran Khan's relatives during a hunger strike. The judiciary does not resolve Khan's broader imprisonment, but it creates a face-saving off-ramp for the government and PTI before unrest spreads.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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