Possible scenario
Contained Protest Cycle
38% Chance
Authorities keep the September 27 PTI mobilization tightly managed through detentions, roadblocks, and selective legal concessions. The hunger strike by Imran Khan's sisters draws media attention but does not trigger a nationwide rupture because PTI leadership avoids a direct confrontation with police and the military-backed government.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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