Possible scenario
Crackdown And Unrest
30% Chance
The government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi responds with pre-emptive arrests, Section 144 orders, and transport restrictions. PTI workers still gather in Lahore, Islamabad, and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, creating localized clashes but not a full national shutdown.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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