Possible scenario
Security Deteriorates
23%
−2.1%
Maduro loyalists, colectivos, and armed units that evaded capture shift to sabotage, kidnappings, and attacks on infrastructure. The conflict remains centered in Venezuela, but the risk of U.S. casualties and oil disruptions creates a sharper geopolitical risk-off reaction.
What it moves
- Energy+2.2%
- Finance−2.2%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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