Talarico's Senate lead narrowed from a 6 point margin found in a previous poll of registered voters in September, but Kalshi prediction markets place his odds of winning at 64% compared to Paxton's 36%. The governor's race showed a sharper shift; Hinojosa led by 3 points in September before trailing Abbott by 4 points in the current survey, which noted a 3% gain for Abbott and a 4% drop for Hinojosa relative to previous polling.
Wednesday, October 21, 2026
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Talarico Leads Ken Paxton in New Texas Senate Race Poll
US Politics7 days ago
James Talarico currently holds a thin advantage over Republican Ken Paxton in the competition for the US Senate in Texas in a Marist survey of likely voters conducted from October 8 to October 11. Talarico leads Paxton 47% to 45%, while incumbent Governor Greg Abbott maintains a lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa with 49% to 45% in the same poll. These results indicate a highly competitive environment for the 2026 state elections.
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