Possible scenario
Talarico Breakout
18% Chance
Additional damaging news about Paxton or a major campaign misstep turns a close race into a clear Democratic opportunity. National Democratic groups increase spending, while some business Republicans quietly distance themselves from Paxton.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Finance -0.3%
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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