Possible scenario
Talarico Narrow Win
38% Chance
James Talarico converts his polling and fundraising edge into a narrow Democratic pickup in Texas. Paxton's corruption history, bruising GOP primary, and weaker appeal in suburbs limit his ability to consolidate anti-Democratic voters.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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