Possible scenario
Paxton Comeback Win
34% Chance
Ken Paxton recovers as Republican voters consolidate, national GOP money arrives, and Trump-aligned turnout operations focus on rural and exurban counties. Talarico remains competitive but cannot overcome Texas' underlying Republican lean in a federal race.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Finance +0.5%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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