Possible scenario
Labor Disruption Widens
20% Chance
The policy begins to show visible effects in sectors with high immigrant-worker exposure, including hospitality, healthcare support, food processing, agriculture, and IT services. The economic debate shifts from immigration enforcement to wage pressure, service availability, and project delays.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Healthcare -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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