Possible scenario
Enforcement Mostly Holds
30% Chance
The administration proceeds with visa cancellations through State Department systems, DHS databases, and consular notifications. Litigation continues, but the policy’s near-term operational effect remains substantial.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.3%
- Business Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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