Possible scenario
Judicial Partial Block
35% Chance
Civil-rights groups, state attorneys general, universities, and large employers challenge the revocations on due-process and administrative-law grounds. Courts are likely to slow or narrow implementation rather than fully validate or permanently cancel the policy in the first round.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Business Services +0.5%
- Technology +0.4%
- Healthcare +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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