Result Faces Challenge

18%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Turner or Ohio Republicans scrutinize the count if the margin is narrow, especially in Montgomery County and the Dayton suburbs. The legal process is unlikely to reverse the result but could delay final certification and committee planning.

What it moves

Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?