Possible scenario
Managed Re-Registration
25% Chance
The ECI keeps the re-registration drive intact but extends deadlines, adds appeal counters and allows outside observers to monitor disputed districts. The government frames the arrests as law-and-order action while making procedural concessions to reduce the intensity of protests.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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