Possible scenario
Court-Led Rollback
35% Chance
The Supreme Court of India intervenes quickly, limiting the political damage from the voter-roll purge and giving the Election Commission of India a face-saving path to revise the process. This is the most likely outcome because the scale of deletions and visible unrest create institutional pressure for a legal remedy without immediately overturning the government’s authority.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.