• 

  50%

  −0.4%

  House Impeaches, Senate Blocks

  The most likely path is that the new House majority, with Hakeem Jeffries backing the articles and some GOP defections after midterm losses, impeaches Pete Hegseth. The Senate then falls well short of the two-thirds threshold required to remove him, keeping the political damage contained.

  Industrials −0.5%

• 

  25%

  +0.1%

  Hegseth Resigns First

  Hegseth could resign before the House vote or shortly after passage to avoid a prolonged Senate trial. This would likely reduce institutional uncertainty at the Pentagon, though the market reaction depends on whether a credible acting secretary is installed quickly.

  Business Services −0.1% · Industrials +0.1%

• 

  15%

  −0.8%

  Senate Removes Hegseth

  A less likely but plausible outcome is that enough Senate Republicans decide Hegseth has become a political liability after the Iran-war backlash and Pentagon partisanship allegations. Removal of a defense secretary would be rare and would create a sharper, though still limited, governance shock.

  Industrials −1.2% · Finance −0.5% · Technology −0.3%

• 

  10%

  +0.2%

  Impeachment Vote Fails

  A late Republican whip effort could peel back enough GOP defectors to prevent impeachment from passing, despite Jeffries’ support. This would surprise the political consensus implied by the headline and produce a small relief move for defense-linked equities.

  Industrials +0.3%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.