Possible scenario
Political Challenge Escalates
20%
−0.3%
A less likely but market-relevant risk is that Flavio Bolsonaro or allied parties formally contest the runoff, prolonging uncertainty around the transfer of power. Institutions probably hold, but even a short dispute would keep Brazilian risk assets under pressure.
What it moves
- Industrials−0.3%
- Finance−0.3%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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