Possible scenario

External Support Cushions

10%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Brazil-specific political risk remains high, but external catalysts such as stronger commodity prices or global risk-on trading partially offset the election rout. This outcome would likely be uneven, favoring exporters over domestic financials and regulated utilities.

What it moves

Non-Energy Materials+0.7%
Energy+0.5%
Market volatility▼ down
Oil prices▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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