Possible scenario
Regional Spillover Risk
−0.7%
Red Sea tensions begin to connect with broader Iran-aligned pressure on Gulf energy routes. This remains the least likely path, but it would produce the largest short-term market reaction because investors would reassess both Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz risk.
What it moves
- Energy+1.2%
- Consumer Services−0.8%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- 10-year Treasury yield
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.