Contained Maritime Disruption

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Houthi attacks remain intermittent and mostly unsuccessful, while US, UK, EU, and regional naval forces keep the Bab el-Mandeb route partially open. Energy markets price some risk, but the disruption does not become a full supply shock.

What it moves

Energy+0.6%
Industrials−0.4%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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