Possible scenario
Shadow Trade Adapts
30% Chance
Iran and its buyers likely retain significant capacity to evade sanctions through ship-to-ship transfers, opaque ownership structures, false AIS signals, and reflagging. U.S. enforcement raises costs but does not fully choke off the trade.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- FRO-1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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