Possible scenario
Negotiated Off-Ramp
15% Chance
A lower-probability outcome is that Washington uses the blockade to force talks with Tehran and Beijing. Limited waivers, escrowed payments, or humanitarian-linked oil channels reduce the risk premium without fully lifting sanctions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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