Possible scenario
Blockade Holds Firm
40% Chance
The most likely path is that U.S. interdictions, port warnings, insurance pressure, and secondary sanctions keep a large share of Iranian crude off the water. China keeps buying some barrels through intermediaries, but refiners face higher transaction costs and slower deliveries.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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